Last week financial results for last quarter of 2008 were published, and is was a striking difference between the negative results of microsoft , and the positive of Google and Apple. It is a more nuanced picture than this, but please beg with this schematisation.
This is even more striking, because in a recession situation one would expect enterprise-oriented and monopolistic business to be more resilient than customer-oriented and advertising-based business.
The blogosphere has long been discussing the apparent decline of MS and surge of Google and Apple. Yet most of the discussion are partisan, based on expert perception or short-term evidence.
This time or me we have somehow stronger evidence. Does this signal a real, important change happening?
In Perez‘s theory, paradigm change (apols for using this abused term) are characterised by turbulence, institutional change and the emergence of new players, which is accelerateed by the turbulence.
So the ultimate question is: is this recession going to accelerate change, and favour new actors and new business models, or will it kill these innovative products and services and bring back the old players?
My impression is that Google and Apple are both so established and cash-rich that they are likely to take advantage of crisis.
On the other hand, I am not so sure that web2.0 startups and, more important, web2.0 attitude will thrive.
The real question I’m interested in is : Will recession kill/reduce the spread of hacker’s ethic (altruism, openness, sharing, etc) in favour of more short-term, money-chasing attitude?
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